Track record

Every call the monitor has made across the walk-forward back-test, graded against data it never saw — hits and misses both, because a record you can prune is not a record. The current open calls are at the bottom: the ones we're on the hook for right now. Everything on this page is read live from the same committed artifacts the atlas runs on.

The headline, honestly denominated

The named ledger — every top-5 call, graded

A HIT means the place was still running anomalously hot in the three months after the call — months the model had never seen. The next-window ratio is what its volume actually did against its own expectation. Misses stay on the page; they are most of it, which is what a ~6% precision against a ~3% base rate looks like when you write down every row.

Forecast bands vs what happened

The final 12 months were held out; the model forecast them; here is the 80% band against the count that actually arrived.

Open calls — on the hook right now

What we withdrew

Six findings were published and later retracted; each links to the methodology section that explains what re-examination showed. Two of the corrections made the product look worse.